This article is my very first and it’ll be about tactical changes and a signing I think Mikel Arteta and Arsenal should look at. Enjoy!
Quick words before I start…
-I’m obviously not going to say Arsenal should sign Håland or Mbappe.
-I think Martinelli will become great. He could fill the “Lautaro role” and maybe even exceed him, so I’ll try to find Arsenal’s “Lukaku” for the future.
-All stats used are from the 2020/21 season, adjusted to per90, and from fbref.com via StatsBomb or footystats.org.
-This is written on March 19, so stats and league positions will change.
-Just click ‘Watch on YouTube’ when videos are unavailable.
The systems
Mikel Arteta is flexible, so his next attackers don’t need to remind of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette. Neither do Arsenal need to keep playing in a 3–4–3. In fact, I’ll suggest switching to a 3–5–2.
Let’s take a look at a team with two successful strikers in a 3–5–2 - Inter Milan.
Similarities between Arsenal and Inter:
-Both teams attract opponents while building up in a back 3.
-Both teams look to quickly exploit the new open space when the opponents overcommit.
-Both managers are tactically flexible.
The big difference:
Inter are great. There are a lot of reasons why, and one of them is Lukaku. They have a proper target man, who can hold off the opponent until teammates arrive to receive. He also has the speed and agility to turn and leave his defender in these challenges.
The type of goal shown below happens more often for Inter. It doesn’t always start with build-up all the way back from the goalkeeper, but it’s the same ‘attract the opponent to create space for offensive players’-concept.
Watch from 0:38 to 1:00 in the first video.
Arteta wants Arsenal to be patient. As soon as Liverpool overcommit they find Aubameyang in a 1v1 against Neco Williams.
Now let’s take a look at how the Nerazzurri does it:
Same concept. Inter attract AC Milan until they can find Lukaku in space. As mentioned, the big difference is the target. Not many can ‘pocket’ Lukaku.
Arsenal need themselves a target man a la Lukaku for two reasons:
1: Age - When the summer transfer window opens, Lacazette will be 30 and Aubameyang will be 32
2: Tactical - If they’re invested in Martinelli, he’d fit with a strong target man as Lautaro does.
Presenting the Lukaku 2.0
TEREM MOFFI
Club: FC Lorient
Born: May 25th, 1999 (21 y.o.)
From: Nigeria
Body: 188cm, 89kg
Position: Striker
Terem Moffi has always been relatively unknown.
When he was 19, he scored 20 goals in 31 games for Riteriai in Lithuania.
He then moved to Kortrijk in Belgium, where he scored 5 in 9 league games before the first lockdown.
This season he only played 2 games for Kortrijk (in which he scored once) before FC Lorient made their move for him.
This season in Ligue 1:
23 games, 17 starts
7.5 xG and 8 actual goals
2.1 xA which is the true representation of his creativity. He has 1 real assist.
Well, his numbers aren’t really impressive until you remember the context.
He’s 21, this is his first season in a big league and he basically just came from Lithuania with 11 games in Belgium on the way.
Let’s dive a little deeper
Scoring frequency: Mins Per Goal in Ligue 1:
Wissam Ben Yedder (30), Monaco, scores every 159th minute.
Memphis Depay (27), OL, scores every 161st minute.
Terem Moffi (21), Lorient, scores every 168th minute.
This is not the Top 3, but I picked two other well-known world-class attackers for the comparison. The scoring frequency is very impressive considering the difference in strength between Monaco, Lyon, and Lorient.
Lorient and Arsenal:
Moffi’s team, Lorient, have possession of the ball 44% of the time while Arsenal have it 53%. It’s fair to say that Moffi would likely have more opportunities to shine at Arsenal.
Moffi takes 2.3 shots p90 while Lacazette shoots it 1.9 times p90 and Aubameyang fires at goal 2.3 times p90 as well.
Moffi, Lacazette and Aubameyang vs Strikers in Europe’s Top 5 Leagues:
npxG/shot
Moffi: 93rd percentile
Lacazette: 82nd percentile
Aubameyang: 95th percentile
G/shot
Moffi: 83rd percentile
Lacazette: 86th percentile
Aubameyang: 86th percentile
These numbers suggest that all three are very effective strikers. When you have the quality as a striker, it’s about providing the quantity which Moffi could do at Arsenal who create more shots and have more possession.
Even though Arsenal aren’t great, they’re better in their league (10th) than Lorient (17th) and therefore Moffi has to carry more weight, while Aubameyang and Lacazette have each other. This can be seen here:
Moffi 2.5 SCA p90
Laca 2.23 SCA p90
Auba 1.8 SCA p90
SCA=Shot Creating Actions: Last two actions directly leading to a shot. This can be passes, dribbles, or fouls drawn.
Conclusion on the numbers:
Terem Moffi’s high npxG/shot and G/shot suggest he gets into good positions while his scoring frequency (12th in the league) suggests he does it fairly often.
His many shots and high rate of SCA’s shows he has the ability to involve himself much more than someone like Aubameyang does, and when Moffi involves himself, his npxG/shot and G/shot show he’s very effective.
Terem Moffi: Goals and tactics
You can see his strength as he easily holds off #2 Wout Faes, even though Faes gets into a pretty good position between Moffi and the goal.
He’s very fast for his size (like Lukaku) and intelligently cuts off Kimpembe in the next video. Cold-blooded 91st minute winner against PSG.
In the next video, we’ll see Moffi do what Lionel Messi does. When the opponents have the ball, he doesn’t press aggressively. Instead, he finds space where he can be deadly if Lorient win the ball back.
I really like his position between the defenders. He forces them to progress the ball, which ultimately ends in a mistake, due to some well-timed pressing traps by Lorient.
This is the Messi technique. Even though Nice had the ball, he positions himself in a very big and dangerous space. Some of his goals this season have come from opponents’ mistakes (like here) and Moffi takes advantage of them via his great positioning and awareness.
When he gets the chance to shoot, he’ll do it. This doesn’t mean he’s selfish at all. Instead, he’s aware of his abilities and has confidence like a striker needs.
“Real” strikers like Lukaku and Moffi will always take this chance, meanwhile false 9s and deeper forwards would likely choose to lay it off.
For Arsenal and Arteta it’s about finding the right balance and I think Terem Moffi would complement Martinelli very well.
FC Lorient Coach Christophe Pelissier told Ligue 1: “He gets into space well and makes good runs. He has the capacity to turn quickly and go forward. Terem is generous and can play good passes as he’s intelligent. I ask him to take risks. He’s mentally fresh and hasn’t been formated. He tries things and I encourage him to do that.”
Still only 21 years old.
